As I’m writing this, the pacers have absolutely dominated the Oklahoma City Thunder in game 6 of the NBA finals. Before the game started I saw the win probabilities for game 6 and I wondered how google can come up with specifically those numbers. Why were OKC specifically given a 72 % chance to win and not a 71 % chance?
Let’s break down what win probability actually means, how it’s calculated, and how it played out in the 2025 NBA Finals between the Thunder and the Pacers.
What Is Win Probability?
Win probability is a number that shows how likely it is that a team will win a game at any moment during that game.
For example:
- If a team is up by 10 points with only 2 minutes left, they might have a 95% chance to win.
- If the game is tied at halftime, the chances might be close to 50/50.
Google and other sites update this number in real time based on what’s happening on the court.
How Does Google Figure That Out?
Here’s how Google (and similar tools) calculate win probability:
1. They Look at the Score and Time Left
This is the most obvious part:
- If a team is leading by a lot and there’s little time left, they are more likely to win.
- The earlier in the game it is, the less certain the prediction.
2. They Use Past Data
Google looks at thousands of past games to see what usually happens when teams are in similar situations.
Example:
- If teams down by 5 points with 3 minutes left only win 15% of the time, then the current team in that spot will be given about a 15% chance.
3. They Consider Team Strength
They factor in how good the teams are:
- The Thunder were favored because of a better regular season record and home court advantage.
- The Pacers were underdogs, so even if the score was close, the Thunder might still have had the edge in win probability.
4. They Run Computer Simulations
Behind the scenes, a computer plays out the rest of the game thousands of times based on stats and probabilities to figure out what’s most likely to happen.
What Happened in the 2025 NBA Finals?
Let’s use the current Finals as a real example:
Game 6: Pacers Surprise Everyone
- Before the game, the Thunder had a 70%+ chance to win and close the series.
- But during the game, as the Pacers took control in the 4th quarter, their win probability jumped.
- By the end, it was nearly 100% — and they forced a Game 7!
Game 7 Preview: Thunder Favored, But It’s Close
- With the series tied 3–3, each team is one win away from the championship.
- Because the game is in Oklahoma City, and because the Thunder had a better season, Google gives them about a 75–80% chance to win before tipoff.
Why It’s Cool (And Useful)
- It helps fans understand how the game is going.
- You can tell when a play is a game-changer — like a three-pointer that flips the odds.
- It makes watching more exciting, especially in close games.
Final Thoughts
So next time you see Google say, “Thunder have an 82% chance to win,” remember — it’s based on score, time left, past game data, and smart computer simulations.
In Game 7 of the 2025 Finals, those win probabilities will bounce up and down with every basket, steal, or missed shot. Whether you’re cheering for OKC or Indiana, the numbers will tell part of the story — but the drama on the court is what makes basketball amazing.
The Data Dynamo 